New Urban Post

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-12-02T14:43:00.000-08:00

The market in DC looks fairly strong for those who are in the market. We took a look at activity in the last 15 days: sales of homes listed for between $200,000 and $1,000,000.

There were 267 sales in the last 15 days of homes in this price range. They sold in an average of 51 days at an average of 98.2% of the list price.

U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall for Third Consecutive Week

2009-11-19T13:58:00.000-08:00

From Bloomberg News

By Brian Louis

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Rates for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell for the third straight week, offering a boost to potential buyers who may use a government tax credit to purchase homes. The 15-year rate declined to a record low.

The 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent from 4.91 percent, the lowest since May, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest since records began in 1991.

Low mortgage costs and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers have helped increase demand for property this year. President Barack Obama signed legislation this month to extend the credit and expand it to include some current homeowners, which may lead to rising sales.

“We’re not getting a huge bounce,” in demand, said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at New York-based Strategas Research Partners LLC. “At some point we have to get beyond just flat.”

Federal Reserve bond purchases from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, which package home loans into securities, brought down yields on the bonds this year, allowing lenders to reduce rates on new loans while still selling the securities backed by them at a profit.

The central bank pledged to buy up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities bonds, helping drive mortgage rates to a record low of 4.78 percent in April.

The central bank’s purchasing program is scheduled to end in the first quarter of next year, the Federal Open Market Committee said on Sept. 23. It reiterated those plans this month.

The tax credit for first-time buyers was set to expire Nov. 30. Uncertainty over whether the credit would be extended may have prompted homebuilders to hold off on construction and led to a decline in housing starts in October.

“That definitely had a dampening effect on housing demand over the last month,” said Celia Chen, senior director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Demand measures will pick up again in coming months.”

Commerce Department figures showed starts fell 11 percent to an annual rate of 529,000 in October, the lowest level since April.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Louis in Chicago at blouis1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 19, 2009 11:19 EST

Dupont Circle Trends 2009

2009-11-11T14:25:00.000-08:00

The trend in condo sales in Dupont Circle this year has been that the average absolute price has come steadily down -- from $455K to $396K, although the price per square foot came back up in the third quarter -- from from $496 in the second quarter to $527 in the third quarter.

The difference between list price and close price has come closer and closer together, from 96% in the first quarter to 99% in the third quarter. This indicates that sellers have become quite realistic in their expectations.

Average days on the market have come down dramatically from 53 days on the first quarter to 35 days in the third quarter. Again, this indicates a balance in the market between buyers and sellers.

The number of homes sold has steadily increased since the beginning of the year: 23 homes in the first quarter, 46 homes in the second quarter and 50 homes in the third quarter.

For a chart illustrating the trends in Dupont Circle this year, contact Kim at City Influence - 202-309-5209.

Washington Beats U.S. Housing Slump on Obama Budget

2009-11-05T09:32:00.000-08:00

From Bloomberg

By John Gittelsohn
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for new homes is growing faster in the Washington area than in any other major U.S. city as existing inventory shrinks and a record $3.52 trillion federal budget fuels the local economy.
Builders took out construction permits on 4,442 single- family homes in the Washington metropolitan area in the third quarter, up 11 percent from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau. Nationwide, permits fell 17 percent.
The federal budget rose 18 percent this year to $3.52 trillion and is projected to grow to $5.3 trillion by 2019, according to the Treasury Department. NVR Inc.,Toll Brothers Inc., Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., Pulte Homes Inc., KB Home and D.R. Horton Inc. are buying land and reporting sales growth in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, anticipating job and home price gains in the region.
“It’s good to have a rich uncle and the federal government clearly isn’t spending less,” said Stephen Fuller, professor of public policy and director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. “We’re on a rebound much faster than other locations because of increased spending to manage the economy and to manage two wars.”
About 15 percent of all federal procurement goes to the Washington area, Fuller said. In the latest example of federal largess, the administration on Oct. 29 endorsed plans to extend an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, which is scheduled to expire Nov. 30.
Price Rally
Prices of existing homes in the Washington region climbed each month from March through August, gaining a total of 7.8 percent, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. The index for the nation’s 20 largest cities rose 4.8 percent from its low in April.
In Fairfax County, Virginia, the most populous county abutting the District of Columbia, September prices surged 12 percent from a year earlier to a median of $365,000, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. The number of total listings fell 28 percent.
Prices in the metro area are still 29 percent less than their peak in May 2006, the home price index shows.
“Do I see prices rebounding? Yes,” Dan Freire, a real estate broker in Ashburn, Virginia, with The Long & Foster Cos. “Will it be like earlier in the decade? No, and that’s good. For now, prices are up because inventory is going down.”
Leaving Iowa
Freire was the broker for Dean Cantrill, who transferred from Iowa to work for Cobham Plc, a British aerospace company with offices in Herndon, Virginia.
Cantrill sold his home in Iowa for $413,000, about $15,000 less than the listed price. He paid about $660,000 for a four- bedroom, 5,500-square-foot (551 square meters) house built by Pulte about 20 miles (32 kilometers) from his office. He paid more than the $639,000 listed price after ordering a finished basement, three-car garage and enlarged master bedroom.
Cantrill moved into the home last week. He said there is “about three or four times” as much construction going on in the community as when he looked at the property in July.
Washington ranked as the third-healthiest U.S. housing market -- behind Austin and San Antonio in Texas -- in a report published Oct. 7 by Hanley Wood Market Intelligence of Costa Mesa, California. In a similar report in February, Washington ranked No. 10 among the “100 healthiest,” based on job growth, household income and population projections.
New Construction
In the third quarter, construction started on 2,285 homes in the Washington area, which was 21 percent more than a year earlier and the biggest quarterly jump in two years, according to Metrostudy, a Houston-based research firm that tracks construction data in more than 80 metro areas. Housing starts in the region peaked at 10,600 in the second quarter of 2005.
In the entire U.S., construction spending rose in September as residential builders rushed to finish projects. Private residential construction spending increased 3.9 percent, the biggest gain since July 2003, the Commerce Department said today.
Housing isn’t the only type of local real estate benefiting from government spending, according to Michael D. Fascitelli, chief executive officer of New York-based Vornado Realty Trust, the largest real estate investment trust by market value, which owns 18 million square feet (167 hectares) of office and retail space in Washington.
‘You’re Paying’
“Washington is the best market in the country for apartments, hotels and offices,” he said at an Oct. 15 forum in New York sponsored by Bisnow.com. “And why do you think that is? Thank you very much. You’re paying for it.”
A bigger budget means more federal jobs. In September, there were 363,800 people working for the government in the Washington area, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up 3 percent from a year earlier. For each new government employee, about 1.7 private contractors are added to federal payrolls, according to Fuller.
By 2011, another 82,000 new jobs will relocate from other states to military installations in the region through the Base Relocation and Closure Program, according to the Maryland Department of Business and Economic Development and the Virginia National Defense Industrial Authority.
The Washington metro area’s unemployment rate stood at 6.2 percent at the end of September, the lowest of the nation’s 10 largest metro areas, according to the labor statistics bureau. The national rate was 9.8 percent.
No Sites?
Washington’s median household income -- $85,824 in 2008 -- is also the highest of the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas, according to the Census Bureau.
As construction accelerates, builders risk running out of sites in some of the most popular areas close to Washington, said Bill Gilligan, president of the Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia division at Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers, the nation’s biggest luxury homebuilder.
“We could be looking for land and not have anything ready to satisfy demand in three years,” Gilligan said.
Townhouses, condos and smaller units purchased by first- time buyers are Toll Brothers’ most popular products in the Washington area, he said. Sales at the low end are creating a “trickle-up effect,” with opportunities for people to sell existing homes and trade up to costlier ones, Gilligan said.
Increasing demand has allowed Toll Brothers to decrease incentives -- such as discounts or extra features -- between $2,000 and $5,000 per home, he said.
In December, Lawrence Cutler plans to move into a new 5,500-square foot (551 square meter) Hampton model home built by Toll Brothers in the Patuxent Chase community in Ellicott City, Maryland. The brick Georgian-style home, which sits on a 1.1-acre (4,451 square meters) lot adjacent to a forest preserve, lists for $1.19 million.
Relying on Pension
Cutler, 67, who worked for 39 years with the Department of Health and Human Services, said he negotiated a lower price, which he declined to disclose, and sold his previous home after three weeks on the market. He said he knew he could afford the house because of his government pension.
“The federal government isn’t going out of business,” he said. “I wouldn’t have bought if I thought my pension was going down the tubes.”
KB Home, which reported a net loss of $202.5 million for the first nine months of fiscal 2009, announced in September that it had resumed building in the Washington area.
Top 10 Market
“We suspended our operations previously as part of our strategy of generating cash and lowering overhead,” Jeffrey T. Mezger, KB Home president and CEO, said during a Sept. 25 conference call. “The region is a top-10 market that is beginning to demonstrate stability.”
Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton, the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said on its Web site that there are more than 30 finished homes available at its developments in Virginia to take advantage of the tax credit.
“We’re one of the few builders with inventory,” Dave McCarthy, D.R. Horton’s director of sales and marketing for Northern Virginia, said in a phone interview.
NVR, the nation’s fourth-largest homebuilder by revenue, has the biggest share of the Washington-area market, with about 20 percent, and also has the best balance sheet of the publicly traded homebuilders, said Josh Spencer, a housing analyst with T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore.
The Reston, Virginia-based company said profit almost doubled last quarter from a year earlier to $72.1 million. About half of its revenue came from the Washington-Baltimore area. Dan Malzahn, a spokesman for NVR, didn’t respond to phone messages and e-mails seeking comment.
Thomas Lawler, an independent economist in Leesburg, Virginia, who worked for Fannie Mae for 22 years, said he already sees signs of builders bidding up land prices and building speculative homes that could lead to an inventory bulge.
“You don’t want a situation where builders say it sucks everywhere but D.C., so let’s go there,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net.

Dupont Circle Third Quarter 2009

2009-10-29T07:18:00.000-07:00

CONDOS SOLD IN DUPONT CIRCLE

In the third quarter of 2009, we found that the average number of bedrooms in a sold Dupont Circle condo was 1.2, reflecting the large number of studios and one-bedrooms in the neighborhood. We also found the following details about condo sales:

Average List Price: $399,074
Average Sales Price: $396,160 or 99% of list price
Average price per square foot: $527
Average days on market: 35
Average age: 71 (reflecting the large number of row home conversions to condo)

These statistics reveal a healthy market with buyers and sellers in a good equilibrium. Sellers are realistic in pricing their homes and achieving 99% of their asking price within 35 days on average.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-10-08T06:31:00.000-07:00

Focus on Logan Circle:

Here are some micro statistics about third quarter 2009 activity in the Logan Circle condo market (properties less than 6 years old).

Average sales price: $501,490
Average size of condo: 991 square feet
Average days on market (resales): 35
Average closed price as a percentage of list price: 98%
Average square foot price: $517
Percentage of sales with seller subsidies: 54%

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-10-01T09:29:00.000-07:00

We are on vacation this week; back next week with more news and information.

The $8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit expires Soon

2009-09-17T11:11:00.000-07:00

The information below was taken from the National Association of Home Builders' site.

$8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

The information on this page pertains to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

* The tax credit is for first-time home buyers only. For the tax credit program, the IRS defines a first-time home buyer as someone who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.

* The tax credit does not have to be repaid.

* The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.

* The credit is available for homes purchased on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.

* Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-09-10T06:07:00.000-07:00

Below is a reprint of City Influence's Market Trend Analysis for September 2009

This month's market trend analysis focuses on market activity in the Washington region as an indicator of market health. We looked at new listings, pending sales and closed sales from 2003 through the first six months of 2009. The number of sales that closed in July of 2009 was very close to, but slightly higher than, the number of sales closed in the beginning of 2003. The numbers were slightly on either side of 10,000 transactions.

The number of sales peaked toward the end of the second quarter of 2005 at over 20,000 transactions.

Analysis of the number of new listings provides a clear explanation of the market's surge in 2004 and 2005 and subsequent contraction in 2007 and 2008. The number of new listings available to be sold fell below the number of closed transactions at the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2004 and remained tight until the second quarter of 2005. This close supply/demand ratio produced higher prices and encouraged a dramatic increase in new supply by the third quarter of 2006.

The number of new listings peaked in June of 2006 at about 31,000 listings. So the increase in the number of new listings available for sale continued to increase for more than a year after the peak in the number of sales.

Currently, the number of new listings (18,000) is at about the same level we saw in the first quarter of 2004, as are the number of closed sales. The trend for new listings has been descending since that peak in 2006, but we are far from the low of 10,000 new listings that we saw in early 2003.

One more interesting point. The low number for closed transactions was reached twice during this period - in January of 2008 and in January of 2009, at 5,000 sales. The number of new listings in January 2008 (20,000) was four times the number of closed transactions (5,000), the largest gap in the studied time frame.

The trends are in the right direction for a stabilized market with prices appreciating at a rate within historic norms.

Contact City Influence for more information.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-09-03T05:42:00.000-07:00

Three core jurisdictions we follow in this blog - the District, Arlington and Alexandria, represent the strongest performing jurisdictions in terms of price in the Washington metro area. The average price in this core area in the second quarter of 2009 was $497,216, which is 6.4% higher than in the first quarter of 2009 but lower by 8.7% than one year ago.

The average price in the District in June of 2009 is 6.2% lower than June of 2008. The average price in Arlington in June of 2009 is 1.9% lower than June of 2008. The average price in Alexandria in June of 2009 is lower by 5.6% than June of 2008.

The market remains a good one for buyers, with prices still lower than last year, but inching up as the year goes on.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-08-19T10:12:00.000-07:00

A Look at Homes under Contract in Key Jurisdictions as a percentage of Total Homes for Sale

District of Columbia

There are 670 homes under contract in the District as of today's date. This is slightly lower than the 707 we saw under contract in May. There are 3,186 homes actively for sale as of this date. Approximately 17% of homes available for sale in DC are under contract.

Arlington

There are 152 homes under contract in Arlington as of today, versus 207 in May. 1,217 homes are for sale. Approximately 11% of homes available for sale in Arlington are under contract.

Alexandria

There are 165 homes in Alexandria that are under contract today versus 177 last May.
1,027 homes are actively for sale. Approximately 14% of homes available for sale in Alexandria are under contract.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

There are 118 homes under contract here versus 188 last May. 720 homes are for sale in BCC. Approximately 16% of the homes for sale here are under contract.

New Homes Sales Surge 11% in June - Wash Post

2009-07-27T10:30:00.000-07:00

Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 27, 2009; 1:13 PM

New homes sales surged in June to their highest rate this year, according to Commerce Department data released Monday, another sign that the housing market could be starting to stabilize even as prices continue to stumble.

Sales rose 11 percent over the previous month to an annualized rate of 384,000. That was far better than analysts were expecting and the largest monthly gain in nine years. But sales were still down 21.3 percent compared with the same period last year.

Home sales were up throughout the country, except in the South, which includes the Washington region. Sales were down 5 percent there compared with the previous month.

This follows a National Association of Realtors report last week showing that existing home sales rose 3.6 percent in June, the third straight month of increase. The recent data have sparked hope among economists that the housing sector could stop being a drain on the economy soon, even as analysts predict a slow, bumpy recovery in the sector.

The uptick in new home sales was a pleasant surprise and probably reflects the impact of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, which expires in November, said Bernard Markstein, senior economist and director of forecasting of the National Association of Home Builders. Buyers are also responding to lower interest rates and falling prices, he said. "Some of the fear of purchasing a home has subsided," Markstein said.

Builders have slashed production during the past year, helping push the inventory of new homes on the market to 281,000, its lowest level since 1998. It would take 8.8 months to sell all the homes on the market in June at the current sales rate, compared with 10.2 months as of May. That is still above a normal six-month supply, but an improvement, analysts said.

"Overall, the housing sector is showing signs of continued improvement. Though the housing market remains weak compared to the peaks, the improved data will continue to feed into market optimism on green shoots," Win Thin, senior currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman, said in a research note Monday.

Despite the smaller inventory, there are still far too many homes on the market, analysts said. And prices took another tumble last month as builders struggled against a glut of foreclosed homes, which has brought down prices across the country. Median new home prices fell about 12 percent to $206,200 compared with June 2008.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-07-16T06:55:00.000-07:00

This week we look at average selling prices for properties closed in the past 7 days. Bethesda/Chevy Chase stands out with a very high average sales price. Alexandria stands out with a very low average "days on market."

District of Columbia

The average sales price of properties closed in the District in the past 7 days was $450,264. The average "days on market (DOM)" for these properties was 75 days.

Arlington

The average sales price of properties closed in Arlington in the last 7 days was $580,357. The average DOM for these properties was 65.

Alexandria

The average sales price of properties closed in Alexandria in the last 7 days was $541,173 with an average DOM of 44.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

The average sales price of properties closed in BCC in the last 7 days was $1,052,045. The average DOM was 70.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-06-20T08:48:00.000-07:00

City Influence Realtor Outlook shows Business Increasing for area Agents

The City Influence survey of Realtors for June 2009 shows more business activity for agents in the Washington real estate market last month and this month. The Realtor Outlook combines projected transactions, current activity, seller flexibility, buyer demand and anticipated hiring into one index.

One hundred percent (100%) of Realtors reported that they did more business this month than last month. Fifty percent (50%) say they expect to do more business next month than this month. All others reported that business has been and is expected to be about the same. All said they do not expect to hire people in the next month.

The overall index for June showed a significantly positive sentiment among Realtors with a value of 68. The index ranges from 0 to 100. Seventy percent (70%) of Realtors are finding Sellers more flexible in their expectations on price, compared to 80% last month. At the same time, 50% of Buyers are more demanding in their negotiations with Sellers, the same as last month. Twenty percent report that Buyers are actually less demanding, up from 10% last month.

“With the index showing 68 at a positive value, the outlook in the short term remains positive. The key finding in this month's index is that 100% of Realtors are very bullish on their own business expectations and expect to do as much or more business next month than this,” said Kim Hoover, President of City Influence.

City Influence is a real estate marketing and research firm based in Washington, DC. For more information on surveys, marketing or other City Influence services, please contact Kim Hoover at 202-309-5209.

# # # #

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-06-05T12:32:00.001-07:00

This week we look at the number of homes that closed for sale in each of our relevant jurisdictions:

District of Columbia

There were 143 closings over the last week in the District. The high list price was $2.396 million, which sold at $2.1 million.

Arlington

In Arlington, there were 71 closings in the last week with the highest list price at $1.199 million. That home sold for $1.1 million.

Alexandria

There were 47 closings in the last week with a high list price of $1.049 million. That home settle at $945 thousand.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

BCC saw 43 homes settle in the last week. The highest priced listing was $3.95 million. That home sold for $3.7 million.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-05-28T11:20:00.000-07:00

This week we take a look at the number of homes under ratified contract in each of our covered jurisdictions. In each case, the number of homes under contract is HIGHER than the number we saw on April 30.

District of Columbia

As of today, there are 707 homes under ratified contract in the District.

Arlington

There are 207 homes under ratified contract in Arlington today.

Alexandria

We find 177 homes under ratified contract in Alexandria as of today's date.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

In BCC, there are 188 homes under contract today.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-05-14T07:34:00.000-07:00

Gallup Poll says Americans See Best Home Buyers' Market in Years.

A recently released Gallup Poll says 71% of Americans think now is a good time to buy a home. This is the highest percentage since 2005. Most Americans also think that home prices will not go up over the next year.

Twenty-two percent of Americans think house prices will go up over the next year. But their strong belief that now is a good time to buy indicates that, over the longer term, they believe prices will rise.

Extremely low long term interest rates for mortgages could also be influencing their opinions.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-05-08T08:38:00.000-07:00

City Influence Realtor Outlook shows Business Increasing for area Agents

The City Influence survey of Realtors for May 2009 shows more business activity for agents in the Washington real estate market last month and this month. The Realtor Outlook combines projected transactions, current activity, seller flexibility, buyer demand and anticipated hiring into one index.

Eighty percent (80%) of Realtors reported that they did more business this month than last month. Seventy percent (70%) say they expect to do more busienss next month than this month. All others reported that business has been and is expected to be about the same. Seventy percent (70%) said they expect to hire people in the next month.

The overall index for May showed a significantly positive sentiment among Realtors with a value of 70. The index ranges from 0 to 100. Eighty percent (80%) of Realtors are finding Sellers more flexible in their expectations on price, compared to 61% last month. At the same time, 50% of Buyers are more demanding in their negotiations with Sellers, down from 61% last month. Ten percent report that Buyers are actually less demanding.

“With the index showing 70 at a positive value, the outlook in the short term is quite positive. The key finding in this month's index is that Realtors are very bullish on their own business expectations and plan to hire,” said Kim Hoover, President of City Influence. "This indicates a strong pipeline and increased sales going forward."

City Influence is a real estate marketing and research firm based in Washington, DC. For more information on surveys, marketing or other City Influence services, please contact Kim Hoover at 202-309-5209.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-04-30T08:07:00.000-07:00

Click here for the MRIS Trends in Housing Report for the first quarter of 2009.

The Report indicates that now is the best time in a generation to be a first-time home buyer. Let's take a look at contracts in our covered jurisdictions. Buyers are returning to the market: prices are attractive and homes are selling faster than one year ago. Average fixed rates on conforming mortgages are below 5%.

District of Columbia

The District currently has 634 homes under contract.

Arlington

There are 160 homes under contract in Arlington. The highest list price is $2.8 million.

Alexandria

In Alexandria, there are 163 homes under contract. The highest list price is $2.4 million.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

Bethesda/Chevy Chase has a whopping 147 homes under contract with the highest list price at $2.9 million.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-04-23T10:38:00.000-07:00

This week we continue to look at the number of ratified contracts for sale. Every jurisdiction had more homes under contract this week than last week.

District of Columbia

There were 617 homes under ratified contract for sale on today's date. This compares to 568 last week.

Arlington

Arlington had 153 homes under contract as of today. Last week, Arlington had 140 homes under contract.

Alexandria

167 homes were under contract today in Alexandria. This compares to 148 last week.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

There were 139 homes under contract in Bethesda/Chevy Chase today, compared to 115 a week ago.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-04-16T05:21:00.000-07:00

Looking at a leading indicator, the number of ratified contracts to sell homes, the spring looks stronger:

District of Columbia

The District has 568 homes under ratified contract on today's date. The highest list price under contract is $4.35 million in Georgetown. The lowest price is $41,000 in Southeast.

Arlington

There are 140 homes under contract in Arlington today. They range in price from $80,000 to $2.8 million.

Alexandria

Alexandria has 148 homes under ratified contract as of this date. The highest list price under contract is $2.4 million. The lowest list price under contract is a condo at $72,900.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

There are 115 homes under contract in Bethesda/Chevy Chase with the highest listing at $2.899 million. The lowest price listing comes in at $399,000. Interestingly, both the highest and the lowest priced are condominiums.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-04-08T07:52:00.000-07:00

City Influence Realtor Outlook shows Sellers More Flexible on Price

The City Influence survey of Realtors for April 2009 shows a more positive outlook on the Washington real estate market going forward. The Realtor Outlook combines projected transactions, current activity, seller flexibility, buyer demand and anticipated hiring into one index.

The index for April showed slightly overall positive sentiment among Realtors with a value of 50.2. The index ranges from 0 to 100. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Realtors are finding Sellers more flexible in their expectations on price. At the same time, 61% of Buyers are more demanding in their negotiations with Sellers.

“With the index showing 50.2 at a positive value and 36.4 at a neutral value, the overall outlook is positive for the spring market. The key finding in this month’s survey is that Sellers are becoming much more flexible in their price expectations and that factor will result in more sales,” said Kim Hoover, President of City Influence.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Realtors reported that they expect to do more business next month than last. Another 22% reported that business will be at least as good. Only 11% expect a downturn in their business. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Realtors plan no hiring in the near future.

City Influence is a real estate marketing and research firm based in Washington, DC. For more information on surveys, marketing or other City Influence services, please contact Kim Hoover at 202-309-5209.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-04-03T08:35:00.000-07:00

There are some signs of improvement this week. We are starting to see sellers being much more realistic about price. The homes below all sold for significantly below their original listed price.

District of Columbia

The number of homes sold was way up - 102 sold in the last week. The highest close price was $3,000,000 for a home in Georgetown. The home started out listed at $3,950,000 in December of last year.

Arlington

48 homes were sold in Arlington in the past week. The most expensive went for $1,385,000. It was originally listed for 1,429,900 in January.

Alexandria

45 homes were sold in Alexandria over the past 7 days. The highest priced home sold for $963,000. It was originally listed for $1,124,000 in January.

Bethesda/Chevy Chase

There were 20 homes sold in the past week in B-CC. The highest sold price was $1,583,500 for a home in Bethesda. It was originally listed for $1,925,000 in October of last year.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-03-25T14:37:00.000-07:00

Highlights of activity in our jurisdictions of interest:

District of Columbia

The highest priced home reported sold in the last week was a detached Tudor style in Cleveland Park. It went for $1,031,000, which was above asking price by $6,000.

Arlington

In Arlington, the highest priced home sold for $1,200,000, which was right at the asking price. It is a modern Bauhaus inspired house in Aurora Hills.

Alexandria

The winner in Alexandria was a brick townhome in Old Town that went for $1,265,000 or 97% of the asking price.

Bethesda

A home in Bradley Hills that sold for $1,190,000 was the highest price fetched in Bethesda this week. The asking price was $1,300,000.

Things are heating up!

2009-03-19T11:51:00.001-07:00

Real Estate Round-up for This Week

All jurisdictions saw a rise in the number of homes sold.

District of Columbia

68 homes sold in the last week; more than twice the number of the previous week. Average sales price: $605,404. Average days on market: 66

Arlington

24 homes sold in the last week; double the number sold the previous week. Average sales price: $471,477. Average days on market: 73

Alexandria
18 homes sold in the last week; more than the number sold the previous week. Average sales price: $408,419. Average days on market: 64

Bethesda

7 homes sold in the last week; more than the number sold the previous week. Average sales price: $666,085. Average days on market: 88

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-03-10T05:41:00.000-07:00

This week we look at "days on market"(DOM) for sales in the last week in our covered jurisdictions.

District of Columbia

33 homes sold with an average DOM of 71.

Arlington

12 homes sold with an average DOM of 63.

Alexandria

16 homes sold with an average DOM of 56.

Bethesda

6 homes sold with an average DOM of 136.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-02-26T15:50:00.000-08:00

Significant increases in the number of homes sold in most of our covered jurisdictions...

District of Columbia:

45 homes sold v. 31 the previous week at an average price of $579,390

Arlington:

24 homes sold v. 15 the previous week at an average price of $473,358

Alexandria

31 homes sold v. 19 the previous week at an average price of $321.106

Bethesda

4 homes sold v. 4 the previous week at an average price of $498,500

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-02-18T10:20:00.000-08:00

Alexandria was a bright spot in the last week with a significant increase in the number of homes sold as well as in the average price.

District of Columbia:

31 homes sold v. 34 the previous week at an average price of $368,700 (significantly lower)

Arlington:

15 homes sold v. 9 the previous week at an average price of $468,488 (slightly lower)

Alexandria:

19 homes sold v. 7 the previous week at an average price of $447,136 (significantly higher)

Bethesda:

4 homes sold v. 8 the previous week at an average price of $418,750 (significantly lower)

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-02-11T11:33:00.000-08:00

The first week of the month may be the least popular time to settle:

District of Columbia
Sold 34 v. 62 the previous week at an average price of $585,376 (higher price than last week)

Arlington
Sold 9 v. 29 the previous week at an average price of $481,833 (slightly lower price)

Alexandria
Sold 7 v. 23 at an average price of $270,857 (lower price than last week)

Bethesda
Sold 8 v. 8 the previous week at an average price of $682,562 (lower price than last week)

Week Ahead Outlook

2009-02-09T07:08:00.000-08:00

There are 213 new listings in the District of Columbia over the last 7 days. The highest priced new listing is in Georgetown at $5.2 million. The second highest priced new listing is in Kent at almost 1 million less: $4.250 million.

There are 79 new listings in Arlington. The highest priced listing is a townhouse listed for $2.795 million at Monument Place.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-02-04T13:19:00.000-08:00

Alexandria doubled the number of homes sold in the past week compared to the week prior. Here are all the numbers:

Alexandria:
23 homes sold v. 11 in the prior week. Average sales price: $391,900

D.C.:
62 homes sold v. 39 in the prior week. Average sales price: $534,795

Arlington:
29 homes sold v. 21 the prior week. Average sales price: $488,651

Bethesda:
8 homes sold v. 10 the prior week. Average sales price $1,143,725

Week Ahead Outlook

2009-01-27T16:21:00.000-08:00

Number of new listings in the District of Columbia in the last 7 days: 217 (compare: 108 last week). Ranging in price from $41,900 to $5,650,000.

Number of new listings in the last 30 days: more than 500 (compare 204). Ranging in price from $20,000 to $7,500,000.

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-01-22T12:29:00.000-08:00

The past week's home sales, as compared to the previous week:

DC: 39 homes sold (down from 45 ) at an average price of $515,141
Arlington: 21 homes sold (up from 18) at an average price of $400,276
Alexandria City: 11 sold (down from 13) at an average price of $424,900
Bethesda: 10 homes sold (up from 8) at an average price of $902,500

Real Estate Round-Up

2009-01-14T14:55:00.000-08:00

Today we report on the number of homes sold (settled) in the last week in different local jurisdictions:

DC: 45 homes sold at an average price of $595,750
Arlington: 18 homes sold at an average price of $534,911
Alexandria City: 13 sold at an average price of $375,130
Bethesda: 8 homes sold at an average price of $514,612

We will make comparisons going forward with these figures as the benchmark for 2009.

Week Ahead Outlook

2009-01-11T15:04:00.000-08:00

We are establishing benchmarks this week as we start looking at leading indicators. Today we look at the number of reported condo units newly listed in the District of Columbia in the last 7 days and in the last 30 days.

The number newly listed in the last 7 days is 108 units. They range in price from a low of $89,900 to a high of $4,350,000. The average list price of these 108 units is $474,284.

The number newly listed in the last 30 days is 204 units. They range in price from $49,900 to $4,350,000. The average list price of these 204 units is $476,232.

Information on new listings was provided by Suzanne Des Marais of EYA Urban Realtors. She can be reached at 202-641-5373.

A builder's view on a very short window of opportunity

2009-01-10T13:50:00.000-08:00

The following is an excerpt from an article written by Chris Schell of Schell Brothers, the largest developer in lower Delaware:

"On or shortly after January 20, we will have a package in place to seriously kick start housing. Now, ask yourself this...once the package is announced and home sellers (Builders & Existing Home Sellers) know that Obama has taken steps to significantly increase demand in housing, what do you think will happen to their willingness to offer incredible deals? I can tell you... it will significantly decline. Why would they offer a great deal when they know that they no longer need to since the housing stimulus is going to be all the incentive buyers need? Obama's stimulus package is likely to be temporary because only a temporary housing stimulus will create the desired urgency and housing demand. So Obama may do something like lowering conforming interest rates to 4.5% for 6 months only. The last time the government intervened in the housig market by providing tax credits and reduced mortgages rates was in 1975. Housing starts immdediately reacted to the stimulus and turned up within 2 months. Now, keep in mind that Housing Starts typically occur (on average) about two months after the home sale (contract signed). So Home Sales literally turned on a dime the moment the stimulus went into effect. For those who have been waiting to buy a home and can still afford to do so, they will benefit by being the first people "through the doors" and thus get the greatest selection of homes and maybe even capitalize on Builder incentives that the Builders haven't yet removed. I know becuase I am one of these builders who intends to remove or at least reduce my incentives shortly after the announcement of Obama's stimulus package."

Weekend Outlook

2009-01-09T13:13:00.000-08:00

In Weekend Outlook we look at trends in the condo market in Washington in order to try to establish the direction of things and make some “calls” on the market as we move through 2009. We do that by tracking the open house activity for condos in the District. We look at both the overall picture and from week to week focus on a different market subset.

If you were shopping for a condo this weekend, you would be able to see at least 180 units open. Many of these units are in a single project. For example, you could see several units at the Erie in Adams Morgan. In the sweet spot of condos priced at or around $500,000, which is the average selling price right now, you could see 14 units open this weekend.

Our open house information this week is courtesy of Kathy Brandel at EYA Urban Realtors. She can be reached at 202-841-3462 for more information about specific open houses.

New Urban Post Announces Three Weekly Columns

2009-01-09T06:41:00.000-08:00

Beginning tomorrow, the New Urban Post will publish three regular columns: Friday's Weekend Outlook, Monday's Week-Ahead Forecast and Wednesday's Real Estate Round-up. We welcome your comments and posts for these columns and other topics of interest.

Activity in Logan Circle

2008-12-28T08:42:00.000-08:00

Looking at activity in Logan Circle, we can see the surge in condo conversions that began in 1998 and peaked in 2004. The number of sales in November of 2008 is the same as the number sold in November of 2000. The percentage of listings sold has dropped significantly from 2006 to 2008. Unfortunately, we cannot obtain percentage of listings sold data prior to 2006 (at least not from any reliable source). Whether we have reached a floor in activity in Logan for the time being will become clearer in the first quarter of 2009. On a positive note, the average sales price in this zip code for November of 2008 was up over the average for 2007; $564,000 v. $518,000.

1995: 4 sold
1996: 3 sold
1997: 1 sold
1998: 12 sold
1999: 14 sold
2000: 15 sold
2001: 17 sold
2002: 18 sold
2003: 18 sold
2004: 31 sold
2005: 24 sold
2006: 21 sold out of 69 active listings (30%)
2007: 20 sold out of 100 active listings ((20%)
2008: 15 sold out of 81 active listings (18%)
There are currently 94 active listings in this zip code.

Look at the trend of Novembers past:

2008-12-24T08:39:00.001-08:00

When I read the headline in the Washington Post this morning about plunging real estate sales in November, I decided to do some research. I looked at sales in November in zip code 20009 in the District of Columbia going back to 1995. I looked at the number of homes sold in that month in each year between 1995 and 2008. I wanted to get a sense of what "normal" might be for this very specific geographic location. In future posts, I will look at other zip codes and do the same thing to give us a sense of where we are on a continuum. Here is what I found for zip 20009:

Number of homes sold in November
1995: 39
1996: 35
1997: 52
1998: 56
1999: 88
2000: 74
2001: 77
2002: 90
2003: 89
2004: 116
2005: 89
2006: 76
2007: 64
2008: 39

It would appear, based on the 14-year trend represented by this data, that we could be at the low point for numbers of homes sold. The average over these 14 years is about 70 homes sold in the month of November. Based on the historical behavior of this market, buyers today can expect a doubling of demand over a 2 to 5-year period for the home they buy today. That much increase in demand typically means a significant increase in value.

We are talking low...

2008-12-22T17:43:00.000-08:00

Mortgage rates down at 4.5% fixed? Are you kidding me? If you qualify, and if you have equity (or are contributing equity in a purchase), you can buy a home at unbelievably low rates. If you are in a position to take advantage of this, you are set for life.

Lemmings are small animals that follow each other blindly off a cliff to their deaths

2008-12-16T13:23:00.000-08:00

Why is it that popular media are such lemmings? Maybe I should not start out a post that way, but I get so annoyed by the lack of analysis and thoughtful commentary out there about almost any topic. Of course, my topic is real estate. Frenzy. Bubble. Meltdown. Blah, blah, blah. Yes, a lot of people have lost money in or around homes, mortgages, financial derivatives, etc. But mostly they lost money because they made bad decisions, bought things they couldn't afford, sold (or bought) investments that were extremely risky or some other version of believing that things that were too good to be true were actually true. That rarely happens.

If you buy a house THAT YOU CAN AFFORD at the market price and live in it for a few years, a decade if possible, you will own something worth more than you originally paid for it. A house is not a liquid asset; not something that should be bought one day and sold the next day, or even the next year. If someone sold you on the wisdom of "flip this house," that's an indication that your thinking needs to be re-thought.

I have been buying real estate since the late 1980's. First just to live in and later for a living. So far, I've only sold 4 properties, each one for substantially more than I paid for it (including improvements). Two of those properties I sold were homes I lived in and two were investment properties. Real estate investing is not for everyone, but living in real estate is pretty much for everyone. In general, one should tune out the media and focus on very fundamental questions: do I need to live somewhere? where would I like to live? do I think I will live there for at least five years? what can I afford each month in a mortgage payment?

If you are going to be around for a few years, and you can find something you like at a monthly payment you can afford, buy it and forget about it. I did that in 1999: $450,000 for a row house in Dupont Circle. My next door neighbor's house (same size and condition) sold earlier this year for $1,350,000.

Are we in a golden age for first-time home buyers?

2008-12-11T15:15:00.000-08:00

Maybe so, according the the New York Times. Click here for the article.

Is the Washington Post right?

2008-12-07T17:16:00.000-08:00

The Washington Post today says real estate is down 25%. It doesn't say since when. When I randomly searched in Arlington, VA, here is what I found: the property at 1619 Colonial Terrace North sold in September of 2005 for $450,000. It sold again in September of 2008 for $578,000, an increase of $128,000, which is UP 28%. That is an annual increase of 9.3%. Records show that the buyer in 2005 put up 10% of the purchase price: $45,000. Thus the annual cash on cash return for that buyer was 94% or 282% total. There is obviously a lot of real estate pain in the country, but blanket statements really misstate the facts.

Micro Analysis of Real Estate Values Reveals Flaws in Conventional Wisdom

2008-12-05T07:54:00.000-08:00

When my kids were in elementary school at a posh private enclave in Washington, I was subjected to an annual ritual: reading through a dense and detailed analysis of the results of the standardized tests the kids’ had taken. The opaque report spent most of its time educating me on the performance of the “cohort” of which my child was a part. Though I could understand why the school cared about the performance of the group, I didn’t care about it at all. I cared only about the performance of MY CHILD.

In much the same way, an individual homeowner should be unconcerned about the performance of the national real estate market. A national average is irrelevant to any individual situation. In many neighborhoods in and around Washington, DC, one is hard pressed to find a negative result in analyzing actual results. Here are three examples of homes that sold in the last 90 days.

1405 21st Street, NW. This home, a six bedroom, 3 bathroom Victorian in Dupont Circle, sold in January of 2001 for $679,000. It was sold again “as is” in October of 2008 for $1,550,000. That is an increase of $871,000 over about eight years or $108,875 per year – not a bad tax-free income.

3263 N Street, NW. Located in Georgetown, this is a 6 bedroom, 6 bath, 2 half bath home that sold in March of 2003 for $2,900,000. It sold again in November of 2008 for $4,600,000. That is an increase of $1,700,000 over five and a half years or $309,090 per year – WOW, that’s a nice tax-free income.

5081 Little Falls Road. This home in Arlington, VA, is a six bedroom, five bath, one half bath home that sold in December of 2002 for $989,000. It sold again in October of 2008 for $1,245,000. That is an increase of $245,000 over about six years or $42,666 per year – a respectable part-time income.

Homeowners may have valued these homes higher on paper in the “bubble” years of 2005 and 2006, but they did not suffer actual losses when they sold in 2008. These examples prove that sellers in this market are more likely to book gains, not losses, when they have owned a property for at least five years.

If a purchaser bought at the absolute high mark for prices here, she might have to keep that property for five years or so before trying to sell at a profit. But that hardly justifies the schadenfreude of those gleefully saying “I told you so” about what they call the real estate bubble.

How bad are things, really?

2008-12-05T07:51:00.000-08:00

Yes, there’s a lot of bad news out there and, based on reading the papers, it seems like the sky may finally be falling on us here in the Nation’s Capital. This led us to take a closer look at what is going on in real estate.
As usual, when you dig a little deeper you learn some interesting facts. On average, home prices in the District of Columbia have actually increased over the previous year, ever so slightly, in each quarter of 2008. This is not true of the suburbs. But if you own real estate in the District of Columbia, you are actually holding steady through what one newspaper has described as the “nastiest recession in decades.”
And if you look at DC plus the inner suburbs of Arlington/Alexandria and close-in Montgomery County, the average sales price of a home is, even now, very close to its peak in the second quarter of 2006. The average price now is right at $540,000. The peak was around $560,000.
Trends are starting to look a little better, in fact. The inventory of homes on the market is declining, construction has slowed dramatically, interest rates are trending lower, job growth and in-migration in the region remain strong. These trends combine to project a balance in supply and demand for housing by the middle of next year in the District and a little later in the suburbs.
Let’s look at just one factor in the District: construction permits. The number of permits issued peaked in 2006 and has declined in 2008 to only 20% of what it was at its peak. This suggests that the District will soon face a shortage of housing v. demand. With a new administration coming to town, we should see that demand pick up by the middle of 2009. After all, a lot of the folks who move here for a political job never leave (Tom Daschle, Karl Rove, Al Haig, Colin Powell, etc). That means they’re not giving up their homes to the next wave.
So, if you own property, cheer up! If you don’t, buy something!